Essay
Will Orthodox Christianity Surpass Protestantism as the Fastest Growing Sect in Ethiopia?
Naol Befkadu Kebede
Join me on a journey into a speculative future where the religious landscape of Ethiopia undergoes a remarkable shift, paving the way for the ascendancy of Orthodox Christianity. Picture a scenario where deconversions from Protestantism flood the Orthodox Church, leading to a doubling of the country’s Orthodox believers. Evangelical leaders, once prominent, openly embrace membership in the Orthodox Church, rendering Protestant churches mere theaters as former congregants flock to the Orthodox fold.
How plausible is this vision of the future, even if only for a moment? For many, it may seem more like an illusion than a prediction, especially considering that Pentecostalism stands as the fastest-growing religious sect in Ethiopia. However, I contend that the future I portray here might not be as distant as some would believe.
In this piece, I will elucidate why I foresee a resurgence of Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia at the expense of Evangelicals.
Background to the Prediction
When one’s assumptions and premises find their anchor in current and past events, particularly those unfolding in the 20th century, it’s convenient to draw the conclusion that Ethiopia’s destiny is intricately linked to evangelicalism, coinciding with a perceived gradual decline of Orthodox Christianity. Such conclusions often derive from the observable rise in influence and numbers of Protestant churches in Ethiopia.
However, my contrasting prediction is rooted in the recent events that have shaped our nation’s narrative. Notably, January 2023 marked a profound schism within the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC), triggering both religious and political turmoil across the country. Preceding this pivotal moment, there were clear indications that time was not favoring the EOC, evident in the challenges posed by the Tigray war and resistance from the Oromo clergy, ultimately leading to the schism. This upheaval witnessed a group of archbishops appointing 26 counterparts to supersede dioceses in Oromia and other Southern regions.
This, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. The decline of Orthodox Christianity traces back to the arrival of European and American Protestant missionaries. In the 1984 population census, Protestants accounted for 5.48% of the population, while Orthodox Christians covered 54%. Since then, the data reveals a dramatic decline in Orthodox Christian adherents and an exponential rise in Protestantism, attributed to a massive conversion from Orthodoxy. The table below illustrates the data from consecutive national censuses. (CSA 2007)
Given the trend observed in the percentages of Orthodox Christianity and Protestantism from the three censuses, and assuming this trend continues linearly, a crude estimation for the distribution in 2024 might be:
– Orthodox Christianity: 36%
– Protestantism: 27%
Again, based on the estimated trend and assuming it continues linearly, it’s difficult to precisely predict when Protestantism might overtake Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia. However, it’s plausible that Protestantism could surpass Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia within the next few decades, perhaps around the late 2030s to early 2040s.
The rise of Pentecostalism, televangelism, and missionary activities is cited as the driving force behind the growth of Protestantism. Concurrently, Orthodox Christianity struggled to compete with Pentecostalism and retain its adherents, despite efforts in polemics, apologetics, and even resorting to threats and persecutions against Protestants by Orthodox counterparts.
Some analysts posit that Orthodox Christianity has also ceded political ground once more. The communist regime replaced the monarchical government in 1974, dismantling Orthodox Christianity’s position as the state religion. After the defeat of the Derg regime by the EPRDF, religious freedom was enshrined in the 1994 constitution of Ethiopia.
However, in the past five years, Orthodox Christianity has seen a decline in political influence with the rise to power of Evangelicals and Muslims in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church’s sway in the political arena has plummeted dramatically over the past couple of years.
The Tigray war, arguably Africa’s deadliest conflict of the 21st century, supported by influential leaders of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, claimed close to a million lives, with a significant portion being adherents of the church. Beyond the political repercussions, the war also led to a conservative estimation of at least a 1 percent reduction in the church’s membership.
Consequently, with the combined effects of exponential Pentecostal growth and the perceived failure of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church in politics and culture, many anticipate a significant decline in Orthodox Christianity’s membership in Ethiopia. However, I must confess that I do not share this general assessment. I have reasons to hold a different perspective.
A Renaissance for Orthodoxy
While the preceding events delineate a continuous reduction in the size and influence of Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia, several countermeasures have led me to believe that the Orthodox faith may experience a revival, potentially surpassing Pentecostalism as the fastest-growing sect in Ethiopia. I will outline five reasons to support this perspective, referring to ‘Orthodox Christianity’ for Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity and ‘Orthodox Church/churches’ for the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.
- A Focus on Youth Ministry in Orthodox Churches
One of the factors contributing to the success of Pentecostalism in Ethiopia and Africa, in general, is its robust emphasis on youth ministry. This approach, proven effective in a country where nearly 40% of the population is aged 0-15, has utilized modern means such as televangelism and internet ministries to significantly expand its audience, leading to a surge in conversions.
Conversely, the Orthodox Church faced criticism for neglecting its youth and being slow to adopt means to engage and retain them. The massive conversion of youths to Pentecostalism compelled the Orthodox Church to adopt a defensive stance, responding to Pentecostals in a bid to retain its members, particularly the youth. However, there has been a recent significant emphasis on youth ministries, incorporating apologetic approaches utilizing modern means. Notably, charismatic preacher Deacon Henok Haile founded the Janderebaw ministry, dedicated to teaching and equipping Orthodox youths.
Events like the ‘Psalm of the Thousands of Thousands’ (in reference to the ‘Thousands of Thousands in Revelations 5:11) organized by Deacon Henok at Bole Medhane Alem Cathedral, attended by thousands of young Orthodox followers, suggest a positive trend. This pastoral approach aims not only to retain existing members but also to attract others back to Orthodox Christianity. Multiple ministers within the Orthodox Church are leveraging various means, including advanced technologies, to reach the youth. This technological outreach is proving to be a powerful tool, contributing to the resurgence of Orthodox Christianity.
- Growing Cultural Sensitivity and Contextualization
The current era presents unprecedented challenges for Orthodox Christianity in navigating issues related to culture and contextualization. Shifting political and power dynamics in the country, particularly the rise of the Oromo Bete-Kihnet/Synod, has brought significant cultural and contextual questions to the forefront.
Historical grievances, exacerbated by the current ethno-political climate, led Oromo members of Orthodox Christianity to protest and establish their synod, causing considerable controversy. Despite fears that this separation could lead to the disintegration of the church, I argue that this historical event might actually be a saving grace for Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia for three reasons.
Firstly, the Ethiopian Orthodox Church has experienced schisms before, such as the Tigray Membere Selama Kesate Berhan forming its own division. This separation, partly due to the failure to contextualize the gospel, salvaged Orthodox Christianity by responding to the dissatisfaction of its members during the Tigray war. A similar trajectory has unfolded in Oromia.
Secondly, there is a notable rise in contextualized worship and liturgy services across Oromia in Orthodox churches after the Oromia Bete Kihnet synod advocated for such contextualization in the local mother tongue. This addresses a previous deficiency in Orthodox Christianity compared to Evangelicals. Last but not least, the separation could alleviate the political dominance of the church by leaders from Northern Ethiopia, potentially transforming Orthodox Christianity into a representative of the kingdom of God rather than a tool of political elites.
While the existence of Tigray or Oromia Orthodox synods might initially instill fear among Orthodox Christians, it could, in fact, serve to preserve and strengthen Orthodox Christianity. By getting closer to the hearts of various people through contextualization and using vernacular language for liturgy, Orthodox Christianity has the potential to not only rival Pentecostalism but also the Tehadiso movement.
- Neutrality and Non-Alliance in Politics
Until 1974, Orthodox Christianity held a position as the state religion in Ethiopia, wielding significant influence in national affairs. However, the advent of the communist regime in 1974 stripped the church of its power. Although the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) granted de facto power to the church, enabling it to dominate socio-political affairs, Orthodox Christianity struggled to adapt to its diminished role as a non-state religion, especially with the political power shifting from North to South.
This political shift further eroded the influence of Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia, with Pentecostals rising to political power. In an apparent attempt to regain lost political influence, some leaders of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC) publicly supported the government and endorsed the government’s stance in the Tigray war.
Such political affiliations are not novel for the EOC, which has long been intertwined with politics. The church has been both a tool for political agendas and in need of political power to advance its own goals. However, the Tigray war revealed the inadequacy of an outdated political theology for Orthodox Christianity in Ethiopia, emphasizing the impracticality of seeking a return to the days of being a state religion.
Amid these political shifts, there are indications of a theological transformation. This transformation is twofold. Firstly, some EOTC leaders have taken a counter stance, supporting armed forces fighting against the central government. In a recent video, Archbishop Lukas was heard urging soldiers to kill the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, showcasing a desperate move by some Orthodox leaders to reclaim political power.
The second shift in the political theology of Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity is the emergence of an independent movement advocating for a non-aligned and neutral political theology. While this movement is still in its early stages, leaders and advocates are denouncing the church’s political alignment with the rulers of the day through various media outlets, including YouTube.
In a country where Pentecostals blindly support political figures solely based on their Pentecostal affiliation, the rise of a neutral Orthodox Christianity has the potential to draw many faithful followers back. Political neutrality is deemed a crucial ingredient for Orthodox Christianity to rise and potentially overtake Pentecostalism in Ethiopia.
This shift also presents both an opportunity and a warning for the two other factions of Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity, namely the Tigray and Oromo Orthodox synods. Their associations with TPLF and OPP, respectively, could either elevate or jeopardize them. If these factions manage to strike a balance between their relationship with the ruling government and their mission as a church, they might outgrow Pentecostalism in their respective regions, learning from past mistakes. Clearly defining the boundary between the church and the state has the potential to attract more people to the church.
- Increasing Gospel Centeredness
The distinctive emphasis on extra-biblical characters and stories within the Ethiopian version of Orthodox Christianity played a role in opening the door for the rise of Evangelicalism. Figures like Teklehaymanot and Arsema (Hripsime) dominated the theology and worship of Orthodox Christianity, contrasting sharply with the Evangelical emphasis on sola scriptura (“By Scripture Alone”).
In response to this overemphasis on extra-biblical figures, members of the Tehadiso movement within the Orthodox Church in Ethiopia advocated for a return to the gospel in worship and theology. However, this plea faced resistance, with Tehadiso members being persecuted and excommunicated under the assumption that they were undercover Protestants.
Recent developments in Orthodox Christianity, however, indicate a challenge to some unbiblical experiences and assumptions. Leaders of the church are beginning to question and denounce certain sayings, such as the popular motto, “Apart from the intercession of Mary, the world will not be saved,” which has been condemned by members of the Mahibere Kidusan, the Sunday School faction of EOTC. This saying, once a prominent motto, has been refuted as not representing the true theological stance of the church.
The rise of more gospel-centered Orthodox ministries, exemplified by Finote Tsidk, further supports the prediction of a return to a gospel-centered worship and theology within Orthodox Christianity. Founded by former Tehadiso members who returned to the church, Finote Tsidk has become one of the fastest-growing Orthodox ministries in the country, bridging the gap between the Tehadiso movement and traditional Orthodox Christianity.
Finote Tsidk, by creating a middle ground for both groups to meet and worship together in a gospel-centered manner, presents an opportunity for Orthodox Christianity to attract a significant number of deconverts. If Orthodox Christianity continues to foster such ministries, a wave of conversions back to Orthodox Christianity seems inevitable.
- A Growing Theological Education
Historically, theological education within the Orthodox Church has been confined to selected priests and deacons. The fear among Orthodox leaders that prominent theological colleges, such as Holy Trinity Theological College in Addis Ababa and St. Fruminatus Theological College in Mekelle, were potential breeding grounds for the Tehadiso movement led to limitations on theological education to individuals from their respective local Orthodox parishes.
However, a significant shift has occurred with the advent of online theological education. Many young Orthodox deacons are now enrolled in online classes offered by various Orthodox and non-Orthodox seminaries worldwide. These online theological courses provide accessible opportunities for young leaders in the church who aspire to advance their theological studies.
Moreover, leaders of the church are pursuing third-degree education in ministry or theology at evangelical seminaries. For instance, Abune Petros, the secretariat of the Holy Synod of the EOTC, obtained a Doctor of Ministry (D.Min) from San Francisco Theological Seminary. Notably, two of the three leaders involved in the schism in Oromia also hold PhDs in theology, namely Abune Sawiros and Abune Ewostateos. The question now remains whether these educational opportunities will be extended to young deacons, allowing them to travel and receive theological education at these institutions.
Encouragingly, young preachers and deacons in Orthodox Christianity are now being actively promoted to pursue formal theological training, without the apprehension that the church will lose members to the Tehadiso movement. This forward-thinking approach by the church is commendable. However, there remains a significant gap to be addressed. The country needs more Orthodox theological institutions that provide quality education, particularly in regions like Oromia and the Southern states. Orthodox theological education should not be confined to a specific part of the country; more theological schools would mean more trained ministers capable of sustaining the church’s members.
With Pentecostalism distanced from formal theology giving more emphasis to ‘prophecy’ and ‘healing’, the inadequacy of the theology in Protestant churches in Ethiopia is becoming apparent. Thus, the prediction is that if Orthodox Christianity focuses on expanding theological training for its ministers and laypersons, there is a high likelihood that its members will be deeply rooted in the faith and theology of Orthodox Christianity. Over time, Orthodox platforms are demonstrating a shift from merely responding to Protestantism to a positive effort to nurture and edify the local parish through theologically trained ministers.
Conclusion
In conclusion, it is not merely a sincere hope but a firm belief and prediction that Orthodox Christianity will thrive in Ethiopia. The reasons outlined above represent key factors supporting the conviction that Orthodox Christianity will rise and establish its influence in both reached and unreached regions of Ethiopia and beyond. The positive shifts in theological education, coupled with political neutrality, cultural sensitivity, and a renewed emphasis on youth ministry and gospel-centered worship, form a promising trajectory for the resurgence of Orthodox Christianity in the country.
About the author
Naol Befkadu Kebede
Physician, theologian and public theologian from Ethiopia. He writes on faith and public life in the Horn of Africa, with particular attention to medicine, church and society.